Having seen mostly every film up for an Oscar this year, I wanted to share my picks and predictions.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Pick: The Lobster
Prediction: La La Land
All of these nominations are wonderful, but The Lobster stood above the rest for being so damned unique.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Pick: Arrival
Prediction: Moonlight
Not sure about this one. Another strong field of nominees.
Visual Effects
Pick: Kubo and the Two Strings
Prediction: The Jungle Book
This one could go a few ways, but The Jungle Book is almost 100% VFX. It is a tremendous accomplishment.
[I skipped the sound and short-film categories]
Production Design
Pick: Hail, Caesar!
Prediction: La La Land
Just trying to spread the love here. Hail, Caesar! is a fantastic film, and La La Land is going to win plenty.
Music (Original Song)
Pick: How Far I'll Go (Moana)
Prediction: Audition (The Fools Who Dream) (La La Land)
I think the songs nominated from La La Land are among the worst on the soundtrack, which I absolutely love. This would complete Miranda's EGOT, too, which is awesome. Also, something from Sing Street should definitely be nominated.
Music (Original Score)
Pick: La La Land
Prediction: La La Land
This is what I'm talking about! The original compositions are incredible.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Pick: Star Trek Beyond
Prediction: Star Trek Beyond
I haven't seen A Man Called Ove, so I'm really just praying Suicide Squad wins nothing. Ever.
[I skipped the Foreign Language Films, as I've only seen Toni Erdmann thus far.]
Film Editing
Pick: Moonlight
Prediction: Moonlight
[Skipping Short Subject Documentaries]
Documentary (Feature)
Pick: O.J.: Made in America
Predication: O.J.: Made in America.
I haven't seen Fire at Sea or I Am Not Your Negro yet, but it's hard to compete with something so incredibly well-made that it justifies an almost 9-hour runtime.
Directing
Pick: Moonlight
Prediction: La La Land
Totally fine with any outcome here, although Gibson (for Hacksaw Ridge) seems wildly outclassed.
Costume Design
Pick: Jackie
Prediction: La La Land
Cinematography
Pick: Arrival
Prediction: La La Land
All of the nominees look fantastic. I think Moonlight could win this too, but when it's close, the safe pick is La La Land.
Animated Feature Film
Pick: Kubo and the Two Strings
Prediction: Zootopia
Both are tremendous. Moana is great, but not in the same league. Haven't seen the other two yet, unfortunately.
Supporting Actress
Pick: Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Prediction: Viola Davis (Fences)
Davis definitely acted her heart out and deserves recognition, but Moonlight was just superbly acted by everyone involved.
Supporting Actor
Pick: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Prediction: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Best Actress
Pick: AMY ADAMS (Arrival)
Prediction: Emma Stone (La La Land)
I can't believe Adams wasn't nominated. What a travesty. Of the nominees, Isabelle Huppert should win for Elle, but I imagine this is Stone, or maybe Streep if they really want a speech from her.
Best Actor
Pick: Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Prediction: Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea)
Gosling's performance was a weak part of La La Land, so I'm hoping this goes elsewhere. Affleck's performance was fantastic, but Captain Fantastic needs more love.
Best Picture
Pick: Moonlight
Prediction: La La Land
I think La La Land is probably the fourth or fifth best film, but the subject matter is going to push it up the list among academy voters. It's an okay winner, though. I have Moonlight, Manchester, and Arrival above it. The next tier contains Lion and Hell or High Water, with Hacksaw, Fences, and Figures pretty outclassed. Should be noted, though, that I liked all of these films very much, except for Hacksaw. This was a great group of nominees.
